Use of Indifference curves/isoquants to show anti terror policy effects

This article posted sometime back , was been taken off due to some errors that were noted . A rewritten version has nowbeen be posted (aug 18).

CLICK ON GRAPHS FOR GREATER CLARITY

• 
  This article shows how some of the conclusions of previous two articles can be deduced by extending Indifference curve approach of consumer theory.( as against previous version of this article, we need to assume that terrorists want to maintain same level of terror intensity- shown by each Iso-Terror curve to properly study effect of different situations/policy)
  
  The graphs 1 above shows indifference curves as used in consumer theory. Each Indifference curve shows combination of bundles of X,Y that give same satisfaction to a consumer. Higher levels shows higher levels of satisfaction. The negative slope shows that for each unit reduction of a commodity Y, increase in X is required to maintain same level of satisfaction. Declining slope is outcome of assumption of declining marginal satisfaction from each additional unit of a good ( hence requiring increasing substitution of the other good) The line shows the relative prices of the two goods(slope) and the budget of consumer(intercept distance). If price of good X rises ceteris paribus, line becomes steeper and optimal bundle for consumer consist of fewer X and fewer or more Y(depending on nature of Y). The same logic applies to production of any good say bread, butter, guns or any produced good which uses combination of two factors of production labour and capital. In production theory, Indifference curves are called Isoquants ( Iso production curves).
  
  We extend and apply this concept to analyzing terrorist acts as shown in graphs 2,3,4.
  Terrorists acts can be targeted at enemy country or other places of enemy location (other Foreign countries, graph 2), either frequent low intensity attacks or high intensity infrequent attacks(graph 3) , involve low domestic component/inputs/support or high domestic inputs(graph 4) ( here domestic component means support from sources based in target country)


• 
  When a country tightens domestic security, cost/risk of failed of attacks rises shifting to more attacks in foreign countries as slope of line indicating relative cost of in-country and out-country attacks shifts more in favour of out- country attacks. Thus High vigilance Countries like US and Israel face highest threat in foreign locations on regular basis ( embassies, tourist spots)-GRAPH 2


• 
  Higher security for same reason leads to fewer but more intense attacks( graphs 3)
  


• If cost of domestic support is increased through whistle blowing or other legal acts, more attacks will have fewer domestic support components and thus will be closer to borders. Incidentally perhaps we can conclude that by location of attacks we can conclude where an attacks has predominantly local or foreign origin in conjunction with other evidence. ( the analogy that can be given here : if domestic component price of any imported good rises, sellers will find it easier to sell high import content products than before - more attacks that are planned outside the country) -GRAPH 4
  


• More micro level conclusions can be inferred ( in conjunction with MAX-OBJ –FN explained below in previous articles) –which areas, which locations, cities, times have higher probability as also which mode/routes( land/sea/air) may be preferred by terrorists)

economic aspects of war on terrorism ( contd)

• In the first reference to this ongoing article ( April-May 2009) it was mentioned that terrorism must be interpreted as a lost cost war by perpetrators and that will open new avenues for policy .
  
  There are many reasons that it is an efficient low cost war by Pakistan.
  
  Acts of terror are actually created by extremely poor, uneducated youth- a source of extremely low cost capital: all that is required is brainwashing and training at existing infrastructure.
• 
  Alternative of using army with full international backlash is avoided- but results are much superior. Minimal use of resources, minimal backlash, minimum internal disruption ( as in full scale open war) and maximum damage in enemy territory.
  
  Hence
• 
  There is merit in argument that long run development ( of Pakistan) provides hope for containing terror. In the above context, supply of low cost so called Jehadis” will be extremely difficult overtime- an important element of terror supply network. But this may be a long time coming given extreme poverty in these regions and low rate of growth.
• 
  From Indian perspective , the question is how can unilateral action dramatically increase cost of supporting terrorism almost on par with effect of full scale war.
• 
  It seems that diplomatic initiatives may have achieved little: there is no cut in aid to Pakistan, no extradition of people involved or serious domestic trial carried out. Time horizon of one or two years is too short to judge if terror activity has declined as a result of diplomatic initiatives
• 
  Quick short & serious armed response has the merit of creating great uncertainty, upsetting opposition planning in a seriously effected economy.

• (added and edited) Game theory could be utilized to examine Pakistan;s response by looking at payoffs to both countries in situation a. india uses non aggression option to check Pakistan terror attacks situation b when India uses aggresive approach. Unfortunately 26/11 provided ideal condition for launching an anti terror attack that could have been used to project future Pak response and payoffs. But even Kargil war may have important elements of information thatcould be used to construct payoff matrix for two countries under alternative scenarios
• 
  India has not considered serious Trade based initiative (trade embargos) as a way of increasing cost of supporting terrorism apart from stopping bus services etc
• 
  What are the other ways in which cost of supporting terrorism can be dramatically increased?
  
  More conclusions (With reference to previous posting ( July 31)
• 
  From theory of externality it is shown that increasing initiative to protect oneself from terror threats ( say a city, or commercial establishment) increases cost of terror on other parties as terrorist shift their focus on more vulnerable groups.
• 
  Hence we can predict that as countries increase vigilance in their own country, there will be more attacks on their citizens located in vulnerable spots( e.g attacks in foreign embassies, hotels etc which meet the criteria mentioned in point 1 in previous article.
• 
  As indicated before, frequency of attacks will be replaced by fewer but more intense attacks

(Economic) Policy for dealing with acts of Terrorism

Only certain conclusions and brief arguments supporting the conclusions are presented. Details reasoning will be added later.

Conclusions.

1. Terrorists in their objective function are hypothesized to maximize media exposure which in turn is maximized by maximizing damage from combined damage to ostentatious buildings and human casualties. This leads to inference that terrorist activities may be more concentrated to certain times and day of the year, to certain locations (see 2 below).

2. Terrorists like any rational agents would like to minimize costs of operations or losses/risks subject to objectives defined. In Indian context it can inferred that terrorist activities would be mostly confined to border states lying closest to origin of terrorist networks. This is because longer the distance traveled greater the risk of exposure before the events though this is not the only reasons why border area will be most vulnerable.

3.Point 2 also leads to inference that deployment of counter terrorist resources must be skewed towards these areas – not just in capital .

4. Maximizing Media exposure as stated in point 1 is the main intermediate objective. This suggests the need for Indian media for strong self regulation. Strng states with high control over media (China, Russian in previous incarnation as USSR) probably had fewest acts of terrorism though this theory needs to be tested over other countries.( were there fewer terrorist acts before sudden burst of electronic media in last few decades?)

5. Developed countries ( as proxy for better ant terrorist resources) will see fewer but more devastating acts of terrorism which will have great deal of randomness/unpredictability associated with their approach(9/11 could be superseded by bolder/newer/more inventive acts in developed countries or countries target of terrorist networks). This is because only way terrorist organizations can maintain their tempo against ever sophisticated and stricter vigilance is by more detailed planning, more training, more mobilization – requiring many years of planning. Lower population density and need to max “profits” from such acts in these countries adds to the argument.

6. A strong innovative and highly rewarding whistle blowing policy must be combined with stringent punishment. Latter will involve treating all involved in the outer fringes of terrorist planning on par with actual perpetrators and planners. The “Outer fringe people “have lower commitment to the cause and lower capacity to endure (capital) punishment and possibly more susceptible to monetary awards. This will help to increase the costs of planning terrorist activities and substantially increase risk of failure.

7. In dealing with acts of terrorism, too little emphasis is place on technical substitutions between armed response and other possibilities. ( According to one commando( “ He (“terrorist”) did not deserve to be saved”- post Mumbai 26/11). Imagine the kind of information that could be extracted if there were more than one surviving terrorists post 26/11’. By extracting such information more and more planning networks are destroyed,(edited) forcing them to plan afresh from beginning, apart from furnishing many other proofs). A second aspect of technical substtiution is information that can be gathered without risking lives and more productive action that canbe taken. E.g Flying robotic insects capable of transmitting photos and sound, weapons that can think their way through buildings and immobilize people instantly , tags that can tracks people and trawlers/boats are already available or well within realm of possibility since some of these technology are used in space missions and recent wars.

8. It follows from 5 but also applicable to other countries that terrorist acts requiring greater resources will be bunched together. i.e one act is an indication of anothsimilar terrorist act in pipeline or happening elsewhere in proximity. (edited: This follows from economies of scale argument since there may be large fixed costs assocaited with carrying out most/large terrorist acts) There is some evidence from histroical data but needs closer scrutiny.
To be continued………

Some further remarks on Making “unprofitable roads” profitable

• 
  
  Yesterday Economic Times(July 29,2009 ) article on Private Investment in highways by Dr Ram Singh argues that bundling unprofitable roads along with profitable roads for bidding as suggested in some section, may not work as this will bring down rate of return combined projects. However if period of concession itself becomes a bidding point as suggested in preceding posting (scroll down below to read) then combined projects is possible but apparently not necessary. But still combing them may help to spread risks. Secondly if number of kms of roads completed under BOT scheme in rural-semi urban areas is added as enhancing the technical qualification and commitment of bidders , it may help to win prestigious projects. Timely completion of rural /semi urban schemes will signal many positive qualities about the bidder
• 
  Rights to develop adjacent low value properties and large potential jump its value in fast growing economy is critical to making unprofitable rural semi urban roads profitable. The profitability can be further boosted if government authorities allow developers to siphon off part of taxes/dutes/cess( one time or recurring) on properties that come up in predetermined zones( as in radius of X km all hospitals hotels, educational institutes, commercial concerns that come up independently). The argument is similar to baseline argument put forward in CDM projects for climate change. Many such commercial establishments would not have come up in absence of rural roads hence they should pay developers even if they are located outside “right to develop property” zones awarded to developers. However instead of levying new taxes which can dampen development of rural economy, governments should share or let go certain taxes/duties etc on such new properties for certain number of years.
• 
  However it is easier said than done. This can work best if there are no competing developers in the same zone( which road network facilitated investor interest in commercial property development?). It is not irresolvable issue. (feeder roads may closer to one section than others). What is more difficult is will of government authorities to make necessary legal changes allowing sharing of revenues from commercial property deemed to be outcome of newly developed roads

Making “unprofitable road “profitable for private sector (or PPP models)

• Making “unprofitable road “profitable for private sector (or PPP models)
  
  Normally Indian experience with privatization of road /highway construction under various forms of BOT approach is that only roads that lie close to /or in active economic zones are successfully taken up by private sector. “Roads” which lie in obscure or economically depressed areas are seen as high risk.( there are other reasons- high positive correlation between state govt attitude and economic viability of the proposed “road corridor”).
  However we know from experience that what was absolutely barren areas decade or two ago are now flourishing areas of economic activity. This trend is likely to be intensified in coming decades.
  This suggests an alternative bidding approach to make roads in semi urban-rural areas not covered by ongoing and proposed government programmes. Private sector should allowed to bid for “non tollable” roads on two parameters- cost per unit of technically defined roads( fixed technology) and period of concession. Concession period is normally used on tolled sections. However where development rights on adjacent land is given, concession period acquires a new avenue of profitability. Longer the concession given ( bid for) higher the chances of making huge gains from appreciation of land values and for such unsaturated areas, the lottery element of gains is higher.
• 
  The bidding could work on two parameters which may be weighted or valued iteratively. That is, first short list on costs and then in second round of bidding private sector could demand “concession period” or vice versa( which may include toll-ability plus land value appreciation). There are a number of variations which may be considered. For one, there may be a clause to increase “concession period” for a fixed penalty per year of extension for “X” maximum number of years if winner fails to recover costs in agreed concession period. This will reduce risk for winner but at a cost. Bidding process should turn out to be efficient. Another alternative is final winner could be superseded if losing bidder offers an agreed 10%( or x%) cost and time advantage. However given the high value of future “roads” for the economy it is better not to unnecessarily fine tune and squeeze the bidders ending up with the “winners’ curse” like situation where winner ends with a losing proposition due to overobsession with competition
• 
  However under this scheme investors with deep pockets and small future discount rates and less risk averse outlook may win to gain repeatedly. But no scheme is without some negatives

Option to banning plastic bags

Options to banning plastic bags

Plastic bags have been banned by government on grounds that they are environmentally unsafe. They pose a hazard to animals and also clog drains. It is not clear if the production of plastic bags involves any climate related adverse effect. Apparently it does not- otherwise the plastic industry originating from the same basic chemical compounds would need to be banned.

Hence the real issue is in disposal, not so much production and use of plastic bags. Hence we need to look for solutions that severely reduce use and disposal of these bags. One and not unique solution is suggested. Observed behaviour indicates that people tend to hold on and reuse high quality plastic bags- even when they are free. Hence government should create incentives and disincentives for increasing use of high quality plastic bags. If ordinary plastic bags can be banned, it should be much easier to introduce high quality durable bags. Obvious advantage is reduction is waste turnover. Further it may be easier to separate such bags( when discarded) from rest of trash reducing hazard to animals and reduce clogging of drains. The high price of such bags, its attractiveness and durability would all ensure repeated use. These could also serve as effective advertisement medium –something ordinary plastic bags cannot do. Thus plastic bag producers could get a double relief- some relief from banned plastic plus additional revenue from advertments. There probably would be huge market for picking, treatment and recycling such discarded bags- both its price and ease of identification/retrieval should enable that.

Other options: Often it is suggested paper bags or cloth bags could replace plastic. Former would involve heavy and unsustainable environmental costs in tree losses. Paper bags are rarely of high durability and certainly not for all seasons. Latter would require land use changes when the source is jute raw material and are of course difficult carry easily (when not in use). Recycled material may be best but will be unable to meet India’s large and growing demand. Taxing use of ordinary plastic bags( in the normal sense) probably has superior alternatives as indicated

Article on economic aspects of Countering cross border Terrorist activities

The above article which was mentioned in previous posts has been delayed and will appear before June 20

The New Govt Must act tough with the High and Mighty Corrupt

Why the new government must go whole hog at corrupt in high places-starting with politicians

 

1. Today an article appears in  Times of India exhorting the New Government to keep out  tainted and corrupt politicians. It is difficult to understand why historically governments have not taken tough or tougher measures against misuse of power. Now winds is blowing in the right direction to take measures against such people in power or access to power. Here are the reasons why it is best to act now

 

• People's  refrain everywhere when discussing politics is about Development and Corruption. In recent times we have seen how people reward politicians genuinely trying for development ( though there are some aberrations). Anti corruption  measures (including criminals) against the mighty "Untouchables" can be a mighy  image booster with real effects that will accumulate over time. It is less likely to considered an "eyewash' or gimmick when taken up a "clean govt", more effective when taken at start of election cycle, when taken up without coercion from outside such as judiciary or opposition. In recent times perhaps only Mayawati( against some criminal MPs minister)  and BJD govt in Orissa took tough measures. ( did it dent their image because of such measures ?).
• Many of us are accustomed to accepting and thinking certain process must go through a time cycle. Whether it is population reduction, personal growth or development,. There are examples across the world- of nations, people and organizations - which convincingly strike and destroy these long accepted "time" theories.
• Corruption with its incarnations can have the following impacts; some are recognized;, others may be not so much. That mere a small percentage of development money reaches its beneficiaries is often  repeated. It also means when read together with examples of local leaders in different part of India that development is not as capital expensive/resource intensive as is often thought. Corruption also has a serious potential implication that may cut across the normal zone of influence of a leader"- security. Corruption can be a serious drawback to entrepreneurial spirit ; to creation of trust and team work; to focusing  of energy in right direction.
• Anti corruption seems to be a high return low cost investment both politically and economically. So why successive governments do not act tough to boost their image and their election prospects?
• Of course corruption has seeped in the segments of society, some of which  may be difficult to trace and therefore dislodge.
• Perhaps Media has not fully utilized its potential in this direction. This may be best done by acting together; creating new bench marks  for people in power  and creating internal competition. There cannot be a more powerful countervailing institution than media ( if it does not loose its independence to corporate shareholders and HNIs investors )
• We may soon see some entrepreneur making Anti Corruption a highly profitable and widely participative activity. It should not be hard.

edited version Role of Other Ministries in Solar Power Unit

To the previous version the follwing thoughts are added and comments invited

1. Given the need for transporting the solar panels equipments to remote areas, what role can be assigned to Transport ministry in the Cell

 

2. Given the vast network and need for communication it would be gullible to leave out IT ministry from the scope of work for such a Unit- indeed a Standing Committee may need need to be created for the same- which works at direction of a panel including  foreign experts/agencies

 

From the previou version

 

Institutional requirements: Creating policy and institutional environment for Solar power industry

 

Falling oil price is a mirage and a temporary phenomenon. In future both rising prices and climate/environment concerns will make it imperative to promote solar power in a big way as that is India' s natural advantage.Also falling costs and minitiaruization of solar components( higher kw/per unit area of panels/cell) will make solar power increasingly attractive. So who will be next Tulsi Tanti of Solar industry.(may be Tulsi Tanti himself as he set eyes on solar after his phenomenal success .)

 

The transition from TEXTILE industry to wind industry must be replicable to solar.

 

For this a Special Cell must be created comprising the following ministries with clear cut responsibilities for their solar cell.

 

1. Renewable energy ministry( for obvious reasons, tech expertise)
2. Commerce Ministry ( for fast tracking proper incentive policies for import/export of components
3. External affair ministry may play a n important role in raising contacts/funds(indirectly)
4. Ofcourse Cell for them may  have to approved by a parliamentary process(perhaps?)
5. Links with external agencies like UN to support research and development

 

Special Unit for expanding solar power in India

Institutional requirements: Creating policy and institutional environment for Solar power industry

 

Falling oil price is a mirage and a temporary phenomenon. In future both rising prices and climate/environment concerns will make it imperative to promote solar power in a big way as that is India' s natural advantage.Also falling costs and minitiaruization of solar components( higher kw/per unit area of panels/cell) will make solar power increasingly attractive. So who will be next Tulsi Tanti of Solar industry.(may be Tulsi Tanti himself as he set eyes on solar after his phenomenal success .)

 

The transition from TEXTILE industry to wind industry must be replicable to solar.

 

For this a Special Cell must be created comprising the following ministries with clear cut responsibilities for their solar cell.

 

1. Renewable energy ministry( for obvious reasons, tech expertise)
2. Commerce Ministry ( for fast tracking proper incentive policies for import/export of components
3. External affair ministry may play a n important role in raising contacts/funds(indirectly)
4. Ofcourse Cell for them may  have to approved by a parliamentary process(perhaps?)
5. Links with external agencies like UN to support research and development

 

More later

 

 

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Price limit not met: Prediction based Trade no 9: Us market April 15- 30 profitable prediction based trade series

See intra day chart above. Price limit for pourchasing call options were not met.hence no trade

 

 

 

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Prediction based Trade no 9: Us market April 15- 30 profitable prediction based trade series

Dow 30 is up 3 points after 30 minutes of trade- up over 50 poinsts from day's low.

 

Buy 1 call option if dow hits -50 in next 100 mts

Buy 2 nd call option if it hits -100 i n next 100 mts

 

No Stop loss set as of now

 

Protect profits as per yesterday's limits

 

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Book profit: Trade 8 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 14 US market market

We  have missed the  booking profit at high point of the day so far when dow was -34 , quiet close to profit booking levels for ist options

 

Gain on 2nd option= 90 points= 1/2*$5*90=$225

Gain on 1st option( dow now down -77 =$1.5

 

Total gain =$226.5

 

option3 level not hit

 

Trade 9 will be executed with shorting of 2 dow index if dow hits day's high point ( dow -34) before 2.30 pm

 

 

 

: Trade 8 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 14 US market market

dow 30 down 63 points after mts of trade

 

market likely to move up with afternoon being a peak or highest point of day with volatlity/correction in second half

 

Buy 1 call option at dow down limit point being  -80, 2nd at -130 amd 3rd at -160 in next one hour.

 

Protect profit of 50 points withtrailing stop loss of 10 points. ( exit if dow hits -170)

 

Later trade 9 may be given for shorting index ( with strict stop loss)

 

 

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update: Trade 7 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April9 Indian market market

Unfortunately limit price set for buy call otpions by /before 1 pm occurred  between 1-2( closer to 2 pm) hence the trade abandoned although market has gone up and would have been profitable

 

 

Trade 7 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April9 Indian market market

Nifty down about 6 points at nearly 11 am

with nifty 3300 callpreoimum at Rs 141 with day low so far at Rs 118

 

Buy 5 nifty call options 3300 at RS 130 and another 10 at Rs 115 if available in next  2 hours

Profit booked-Trade 6 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April9 Indian market market

Nifty put 3300 pemium reached  high of Rs 109.

 

While exact level of profit booking is not clear, it is taken that profit is booked at Rs 100.

 

giving a profit of Rs 5*50*25=6250 (after brokerage)
 

Trade 6 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April9 Indian market market

Nifty up over 45 points afer 5 mts of trade

 

Buy 5 nifty 33oo Put options at current premium of Rs 73 and another 10 if nifty rises and remoum declines to Rs 61 in next 70 mts.

 

protect profit of Rs 15 by traling loss of Rs 5

 

 

Market though may have a uper bias after a possible correction/dip. hence trade 7 may be given later

when to book profit? Trade 3- "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 and beyond Indian market market

Trade 3 today would have given a maximum profit on 20 call options of over Rs 1.17L (highest premium Rs 222 ) as opposed to just Rs 5k because of profit booking level set.see chart above.

Even though index did not hit a low ( or anywhere near low) between 12- 1 pm market rose sharply in afternoon from morning lows.

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Profit on Trade 3 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 and beyond Indian market market

Profit booked on Trade 3 under revised targets

 

 

Profit: 50x20x 5(profit per lot after brokerage)=Rs 5000

 

Trade 6 may be given if market hit a new low in afternoon
 

Re: Update: Trade 3 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 and beyond Indian market market

10 options Nifty 3200 purchased at Rs 71.25 -the opening premium.

Average price on 20 options is Rs 105.6.Highest price so far is 119. hence profit booking did not come into effect.

 

Revised target: Protect profit on gain of Rs 10 with traling stop loss of  Rs 3

 

Market may gain from here on after 1 pm(approx).

 

 

also read weekly predictions below. Based on that market may move up tommorrow

 

Update: Trade 3 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 and beyond Indian market market

Add 10 more call options to previous lot purchased at Rs 140 on Monday

 

 

Buy 5 at limit price of Rs 105

Buy 5 at Rs 95

 

(unless opening premium is lower still)

 

Protect  profit on gain Rs 15 withtraling loss of Rs 5

 

Market today may hit a low around 12-1 pm before bouncing back at least temporarily

 

 

Profit & Loss: Trade 5 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 7 US market

 

It seems wthin time limit set only two call otpions coudlbe purchased

 

2nd call options gave a profit of 1/2x$5x40= $100

 

As no exit call was made on 1s lot purchased atdow  -133

its look is booked at clsoing value of -186.

 

Loss on 1st lot is 1/2* 53x$5=$132.5

 

net loss on trade 5= $ 32.5.

 

Note on Trade 4: high profit coudlbe made as seen from chart because profit booking level could in to effect only after threhold limt level was breached which was towards end of day with little at that point (April 6 chart)

 

 

Update: Trade 5 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 7 US market

dow now down -155 points

 

Protect profits on each lot if dow gains 60 points from point of purchase with trailing stop loss of 20 points
 

Trade 5 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 7 US market

dow down -133 points after 5 mts of trade

market likely to choppy and volatile but may in a sense show opposite trend comp to yesterday.

 

 

Buy 1 call option now

Buy 2 call optiosn if dow hits -175 and -210 in next 40 minutes

 

exit if loss extends to -230

 

Trade 6 may be given as shorting of index as dow may lose gains( from day's low) towards end of day

Profit on Trade 4: Trade 4 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 US market

Market recovered sharply in last hour of trade. Second lot of dow bought at -130 ended with gain of about 90 points. The profit on this lot was 90x$5*1/2 =$225 and on first lot (see below) was 1/2x125=$62.5

 

Trade 4: profit $ 287.5

 

 

Scroll down below to see April monthly predictions for Indian an US markets and details of other trades

 

Pls Note trade 3 Nifty  calloptions (10) at Rs 140 being carried forward. Protect profits on gain of Rs 15 per lot with traling stop loss on Rs 5. On next trading day, it will be advsied whether to buy more call options or not.

 

further Update: Trade 4 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 US market

Dow 30 is call option just about profitable with net gain of 25 points or $ 125.(see chart)

 

second lot purchased at dow -130 with dow down 155 points approx. Do not exit but hold as market may recover towards end of day

 

Trade 5 (shorting index )  not be posted

Update: Trade 4 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 US market

In previous posting profit booking level was not mentioned.

 

Protect profits on a gain of 40 points per lot with trailing stop loss of 15 points.

 

exit levels on losses as before

 

 

 

Trade 4 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 US market

Dow 30 down 93 points after 20 mts of trade

 

Market likely to be choppy today

 

Buy 1 call option now and another at -130. exit if loss extends to -175

 

 

Later Trade 5 may be given for shorting if market recovers

 

Pls note Trade 3 marginally profitable is being carried forward

 

Read Monthly Predictions by scrolling down below
 

Update: Trade 3 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 and beyond

10 calls options purchased at Rs 140 but next 5 options not pruchased as minimum price was Rs 129 for Nifty 3200call -april series as agaianst limit price of Rs 125.closing price at Rs 148. Trade carried over for next sessions.Market sugre in last hour would have made higher premium possible

 

Pls note Total profit from Trade 2 was R 9350

Trade 3 "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 and beyond

Nifty 3200 call premium at Rs 158 now.

 

 

Buy 10+5 call options at limit price of Rs 140 and Rs 125 respectively today and hold for next 2-3 days next or update.

 

 

 Prfot on Trade 2 = 11x50x Rs 17 per lot Rs 9350

 

Update: Trade 2: "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 and beyond

11 calls options purhased at averga epric eo Rs 139.36.

 

Nifty 3200 call premium now at Rs 158.

 

Book profit on all 11 options.

 

 

 

 

 

Trade 2: "30 Profitable Trades" Prediction series April 6 and beyond

Nifty now at 3257 appprox with nifty 3200call option at Rs 155 with day low so far of 147.50.


Buy 6 nifty calls options at limit price of 143 and another 5 at Rs 135.

Market may surge after correction in last hour.same trend of bounceback after correction hold for the week.

Protect profits after gains of Rs 15 per lot with traling stop loss of Rs 5

usual disclaimer applies

Pls note chart for previous prediction did not appear due to file ext issues

date of Swearing-in?

See the planetary chart for may 20, 2009. also see details of India's birth chart and other details.

 

for several reasons it seems that swearing in could take place on may 20,2009( any guess when party -to -be in power will choose time of swearing??-unfortunately early morning and late evening time though best may not be available)

 

Also note that Jupiter would have  just traversed to sign of aquarius( indias tenth house)-

 

Thus given election results date(16 may) and expected swearing in date, it may not be a too much of a divided vote or collusion could  take place in surprisingly fast time

 

 

 

 

Pls note review of last month predictions is not being posted pending availability of monthly chart

 

April 2009 Predictions for US stock market

Based on Tarot cards US indices like dow 30 likely to see net gains over March 31 closing -(7609)

 

However details are not apparent since whole month  will be marked by corrections and bounceback-middle and end part of month more likely to see corrections

 

 

April 2009 Predictions for Indian stock market

Prediction for April 2009

 

1. Main index like sensex like to make net gains over march closing(9708-march 31)

 

2. sharpest correction in the month will be in mid phase of the month ( earlier part of 10-20 april)

 

3. Last 5-7 days to be very volatile

 

4. Call option can be purchased for next few days. Short index once nifty rises 100-150 points

 

 

usual disclaimer applies

April 2009 Predictions for US and Indian market

The above predictions will be posted in next few days

 

 

Also review of march predictions will also  be posted here.

 

 

PS: Anyone have detailed knowledge of method ( and way to detect it) of telecom officials creating multiple nodes on broad band internet accounts and hence being used/misued without knowldge of a/c holder may sent replies to wwwkalin@yahoo.co.in. thanks.