Monday, June 11, 2007

why DLF IPO is not worth applying for?

( please double check information about DLF )

Reasons why you should not apply for DLF IPO (edited version)

1. Very few people think it is attractively priced

2. If it is heavily subscribed, retail investor may get at most 10 shares after locking in 1 lac rupees.Immediate return will not be more than 1000 rupees if DLF get listed with Rs 100 rupee premium . ( However since full amount need not be paid upfront economics shifts towards DLF IPO but this is also offset by correction of realty stocks in particular Unitech which has become attractive after going below Rs 500)

3. Shares like Unitech have gone down substantially from 52 week high and with bonus record date announcement anytime , share prices are likely to go up and more so following sentiment associated with DLF in next few days.Buying Rs 1 lac of unitec ( or preferably 50-60% of investment) will give full"allotment" in cash market and even 5% upside on current price will give more return than DLF in short run.

4. downside in unitech is limited. in case of severe down side of 20% one can invest remaining amount to average out. Unitech has consistently shown downward resilience.

5. DLF will list in July when a correction may take place because of interest rate effect of past year on Q1 corporate results will become apparent.hence DLF IPO listing premium is more prone to risk. however in case of general downside in market, because of low probable allotment of DLF , invested capital will be protected.

6. DLF landbank is heavily concentrated in Gurgaon which as far i know is also located on fault line. In any case DLF seems to have too many eggs in one basket .

7. Controversies aside, DLF will use a good amount of proceeds to buy land at a time whenwhen land prices are very high ( are are bid higher in commercial auctions) and bulk demand for mostly contiguous land will only put pressure on price at which land may be acquired ( adjust that for any bargaining power)

8. It seems to me parsvnath and Unitech seem better bet than DLF at current prices.

9. This argument may seem to apply for most IPOs. Not necessarily since those IPOs which are unique in an industry (DLF is not) or those IPOs whose competitors' shares are not attractively priced will continue to make certain IPOs attractive.

Disclaimer: Please make decisions after verifying all relevant information

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