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This article well might be called Astro-Political-Statistical and Economic factors tha may cause a Bear Phase in the stock market in 2008
1. World Markets: world markets are likely to go in to bearish phase especially US and rest of world following as recession fears in US are looming large (see recent articles in Money Week website). Housing/subprime crises in US and Europe will affect the networth of consumers with negative effect on spending and investment. The crises means that Banks and especially investment banks will have to curtail lending seriouly in order to maintain capital adequacy norms. Put another way, amount of money a bank has leads to multiplier effect on credit generation throghout economy and when th capital is reduced as will be the case with huge write offs by banks ( still unwinding) credit contraction will also be several times the actual losses of banks/FIs.Less and not so cheap credit will mean a much weaker economy in US and Europe and very likely rest of the world.In this scenario huge amount of money will be pulled out from stock markets. Given that markets are always subject to panic, greed and fear by turns, a bearish phase could well be preceded by severe market crash. Thus inspite of positive noises about Indian economy, we think Indian market could be as badly affected in short term because lot of FI money is in to India Funds and there are very few Buffett like investors who turn a blind eye to stock ticker once a great puchase has been made in stock markets
A sitaution of near staglation - inflation and slowng US economy could also put pressure on dollar vs rest of currency especially Yen leading to sudden unwinding of Yen carry trade as arbitrage opportunities under Yen carry trade have started to diminish with a bouyant Japanes economy ( thus end of era of zero interest lending in Japan) and lowering rates and deprecating dollar on the other.
Rising Oil prices could be another serious factor though oil prices unless driven by any unseen sudden political development(s) may be held back under a slowing world.
Finally an overbought Chinese stock market, should it collapse will have a domino or cascading effect like unwinding of Yen carry trade. ( It is mentioned in a Moneyweek article) that huge amount of investments around the world are on account of Yen carry trade hence any sudden unwinding ( condition for which are becoming ripe by the day) could have major stock market melt down effect.
Statistically we are in to "eight year itch" ( in 2008) where Indian stock markets go bust every eight year or so( as stated in a CNBC Tv 18 article). Further eight of ten Indian stock market have occured occur in month of April-May this could well be due to role of Sun transit) and only once in October.
The major astrological reason according to us is the transit of Ketu-Rahu from the 4-10 house where ketu is conjunct Saturn in 4th house of investments, property, and affecting the tenth house of political developments. Interestingly transit of Ketu is occurring end of April 2008 a time when statistically market crashes frequently happen, a time when company annual reports will flow in reflecting all the effects of currency appreciation, interest hike effects of the last one year. 2008 is closer to general elections in India and when Left stand on Nuclear deal can no longer be ambivalent and when state elctions will show us which way wind is blowing politically allowing for crafty reorientations and change of political loyalty. All in all we got a heady mixture for 2008 that could make for a bearish phase in stock markets.
However India,s horcope shows that India is currently under major period of Venus- lord of finance and luxury -which is lord of lagna . Start of Venus mahadasha coincided with India's rise from balance of Payments crises in early 90s and a period of rising GDP growth rate. This will last till 2010-11.But Venus is not free from afflication in India's horscope hence all the scandals in market have come up from to time.
Also note sub dasha o f mercury under venus ends in 2008 middle and ketu sub dasha starts providing an astrological conditons for sudden developments, excesses in stock marrkets, politics, financial scandals and political and economic partnerships
But overall we feel any corrections could buying opportunity
Note : This article may be edited over next few days with some new info.
Disclaimer: All risks of outcome based on this article to be borne by trader/investor
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